Tag Archives: statistics

Rent Bacon: March 2013

No Foolin’.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

New month, new Rent Bacon. Rent Bacon gauges the change in actual value of apartments in Chicago on a quarterly basis using rental data from the local MLS. The index takes into account the rent rates, market times, and ratio of rented units compared to listed units. This month we’re looking at 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments throughout the city. For more info on how the index is calculated, check out this explanatory post.

Observation #1: Better value

Now this is not something obvious from the chart above, but it is quite clear if you compare it against last month’s results for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments. The index value for 2 beds is considerably higher, peaking over 300 for the smaller units. Does this mean that they’re actually a better value? Yes, absolutely. (more…)

Rent Bacon: February 2013

Let’s talk about 3 bedroom apartments.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

It’s March. That means it’s time to see how the Chicago rental market performed over the past three months in that fancy statistical analysis we like to call Rent Bacon. As a reminder, we changed formats last month to make this monthly feature more useful. In the process we created a rent index which can be used as a means of comparing value between neighborhoods and gauging how much rent could go up or down over the next year. If you want to read more about what the numbers mean, check this explanatory post about the new Rent Bacon.

This month we’re talking about 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom apartments, and investigating how they’ve performed over the past three months. This is the first time we’ve really looked at 3 beds, which are pretty much the top end in terms of size as Chicago apartments go. You might be able to find something larger in a single family home for rent, but they’re few and far between.

Observation #1: The Gap

In a previous installment of Rent Bacon, I remarked that I saw indicators of people flowing from very expensive Zone 1 to moderately priced Zone 2 when rents got really high downtown. However, that movement didn’t continue from Zone 2 to the even lower-priced Zone 3. My surmise was that the folks who live in Zone 3 – the outskirts of the city – are more likely to move up in size in their same area instead of moving further inwards when their situations changed.

Today in reviewing the index prices we see another potential reason – the gap between Zone 3 housing costs and the inner districts is massive, especially when it comes to apartments large enough to house a big family. Look at the chart above. Look at the gap between the bottom two lines. The average 3 bedroom apartment in Zone 3 is fully 33% cheaper than anywhere else in the city. This is not just a matter of people on the city outskirts loving their neighborhoods. The price gap may be completely insurmountable. A family would have to be earning $84k per year to meet the “affordable housing” limits in Zone 1 or 2. Unless you’ve got a white collar breadwinner or two blue collar/no collar working adults in the family, that just isn’t going to happen.

Observation #2: The winter really blows for 3 beds.

Winter is a tough time to move for the families that tend to occupy 3 beds. It means uprooting the kids from school and packing up a massive amount of stuff during the worst possible weather of the year. The rental market in Chicago generally slows way down in the winter, but for 3 beds it’s a bit more extreme than we see with smaller apartments. All three of the zones saw major drops in the 4th quarter every year going back to 2010. This year has been particularly nasty.

Zone 3’s values took a major hit, falling 11 points since the same time last year and 78 points since the 3rd quarter of 2012. Rent rates actually improved, so the change in value is largely attributable to a glut of extra units coming on the market. As I discussed in an earlier article, January is always a big month for relationships to fall apart and one bedroom rentals spike upwards accordingly. The improving economy has allowed large groups of roommates to split up, which may be resulting in more large units on the market.

Zones 1 and 2 are sitting pretty and showing growth compared to last year. However, the growth is drastically slowed. Last summer the downtown index peaked at 295.65 and the Zone 2 index at 292.99, so we’ve fallen off a bit from those lofty heights. However, when compared with last winter, an equally slow season, the inner districts actually gained 10-14 points.

Zone 1 is seeing static rents and steadily increasing market times. However, this trend should reverse itself once the spring market hits, so don’t count on it being a trend that we’ll see through the year. Meanwhile, Zone 2’s market times are stable, but the rent rates have relaxed a bit and is suffering from a slight inventory glut that’s hurting it’s rent-to-list ratios. Again, this should be remedied by the spring market when a large number of renters suddenly hit the scene all at once to snap up the leftovers from a slow winter season.

Observation #3: That Chart is Too Steep to Sustain

That’s a pretty nasty slope on that chart. Zone 3’s values at their peak last year had inflated to reach downtown’s 2010 values. That kind of growth is far too rapid for renters – traditionally the poorer members of society – to sustain on an ongoing basis. While the rents in Zone 3 have remained largely stable, the rental pace and market demand out there have made it very difficult for someone working 50+ hours a week to find anything good. Meanwhile, in Zones 1 and 2 average rents have increased by between $400-500 for a 3 bed in just 3 years. This means that the average 3 bedroom renter has to be earning between $14k and $18k more in 2013 than they were in 2010. I somehow don’t think that’s realistic.

Chicago has earned the envy of other northern US cities for a long time when it comes to our roomy apartments and comparatively low rents. When you stack downtown Chicago rents against New York ($6000 for a 3 bed) or San Francisco ($4500) prices we’re still pretty cheap. Even so, 18% growth in rents over 3 years is about twice the pace that an average renter can handle. There must be a slowdown. I see it happening within the next 2 years.

everything is going to be alright

The Numbers

Table indicates values for 1 bedroom/1 bathroom rentals based on MLS data.

Average RentAverage Market TimeUnits Rented | ListedIndex
Zone 1
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$252359 days60 | 107261.19
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$254748 days64 | 98271.08
Zone 2
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$218843 days95 | 123226.78
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$233742 days75 | 102241.59
Zone 3
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$149553 days38 | 6760.52
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$157460 days22 | 4749.41

The Zones

The Chicago neighborhood zones remain consistent between this version and the last.

Zone 1 covers central Chicago from South Loop through Lincoln Park. (Actual coordinates: 2000 South to 2000 North, from Western Ave to the Lake).

Zone 2 covers the near North side of Chicago, including Lakeview, Bucktown, Uptown, Lincoln Square, Roscoe Village and NorthCenter. (Actual coordinates: 2000 North to 5200 North, from Western Ave to the Lake.)

Zone 3 covers the Far North and Near South side of Chicago, including Edgewater, Andersonville, Rogers Park, West Ridge, Chinatown, Bridgeport and Douglas. (Actual coordinates: 5200-7600 North plus 2000-4500 South, from Western Ave to the Lake.)


 

I’ll be back on Wednesday with some advice for a renter who got a nasty surprise this month. See you then!

Cook Eviction Stats Part 9: The Cost of Doing Business

Evictions in Cook County are a multimillion dollar industry. With close to 40,000 cases happening each year, the amount of time and energy devoted to people who don’t pay their rent is mind-bogglingly vast. In fact, today I want to take some time to discuss what the eviction industry is costing Chicago in terms of lost time and money. And tenants, if you think this doesn’t pertain to you, it does. Remember that the resources that a landlord puts into evictions could otherwise be spent purchasing and rehabilitating the apartment buildings that are currently sitting empty and inaccessible.

Long time readers will know what this means. I’m going to do math for you. Again.

Yay math time!

Yay math time!

(more…)

Cook Eviction Stats Part 7: What does this mean for tenants?

I’ve spent the past 6 sections of this study focusing mostly on what the Cook County/Chicago eviction statistics mean for landlords. It’s time to focus a little on what they mean for renters. I’m not a lawyer, and I’m not going to tell you how to win your eviction case. There are far better resources than me out there for saving your bacon. This article is focusing on the numbers.

A lot of you have been involved in eviction cases.

7 out of every 100 apartments in Chicago will be the subjects of eviction cases each year. Given that apartments often house more than one person, this means if you’re a renter in Chicago, you’ve got quite a bit more than a 7% chance of winding up involved in an eviction suit.

This is what we're talking about here. It's undignified, it's obvious, and it's humiliating. And a lot of you have been through it before.

This is what we’re talking about here. It’s undignified, it’s obvious, and it’s humiliating. And a lot of you have been through it before.

By comparison, 8% of married Illinois residents wind up in divorce each year, according to the census bureau.[1] You probably know several people who have gotten divorced last year. This means that you may well know even more people who’ve been involved in an eviction case, although they’re probably not going to admit it to your face.

It costs a landlord quite a bit of time and money to file an eviction case. They’re not usually going to do it if a tenant hasn’t given them good reason to do so, and they’ve exhausted every other possible means of solving the problem. Eviction means they wind up with a vacancy on their hands, and usually one in worse condition than one where a tenant moves out of their own free will. However, if they’re gaining no income from a deadbeat tenant, it eventually becomes more cost effective for them to incur a short term vacancy.

There are a few basic things that a human being needs to survive. Food, water, air and shelter are the big ones. If you’re not earning enough money to remain in your apartment, there are plenty of steps you can take to get out of your lease before the court has to mandate that you do so. If a renter has allowed their shelter-related problems to spiral downward to the point of eviction, what does that say about their ability to prioritize?

This exists. It was mentioned in the New York Times. I don't even.

This exists. It was mentioned in the New York Times. What is this I don’t even….

Chances are good that you will get involved in partnerships with strangers at some point in the near future. It may be a business relationship, a roommate situation, or a dating scenario. Cook County makes it relatively easy for you to check if a person has been evicted before. Perhaps you should take a few minutes to for fact checking before you saddle yourself with a scrub.

You have slightly less than 40% chance of not getting evicted.

62.7% of filed eviction cases in Cook County wind up with the landlord getting the tenant thrown out of the apartment, with many of those cases tacking on an order to pay the back rent. It’s easy when looking at that percentage to envision the other 37.3% of cases involving renters proudly facing their landlords in court, delivering the smackdown of righteousness, and maybe getting their landlords slapped with fines for daring to drag everybody down to the 1st District courthouse.

This is not a picture of you in eviction court. Sorry.

This is not a picture of you in eviction court. Sorry.

I’m not saying that doesn’t happen sometimes.

However, those other cases could have had any of the following, less exciting conclusions:

  • The landlord and tenant settled out of court.
  • The tenant’s lease expired and/or they moved out before the court date.
  • The landlord accepted a partial payment of the balance due, and had their case thrown out.
  • The landlord forgot to show up for court.

Half of those causes are clerical errors, and will probably wind up in a re-filing of the same case at a later date. As for the other half? Well, the point of filing an eviction case is to get a tenant out of an apartment before the lease ends, and sometimes to force them to pay back rent. If those goals are accomplished in any other way, then the case doesn’t need to go all the way to its conclusion. I’d say less than 10% of the tenants who are taken to eviction court wind up “winning” their case at the point that they’re standing in front of the judge.

Even if you win your case, there are repercussions.

There’s been a recent trend with the weak economy where people just stop paying their rent or mortgage and wait for the axe to fall. Renters who are reading this series may be doing so with an eye towards this kind of strategic delinquency, hoping that the eviction proceedings will take long enough that things will turn around for them before the sheriff comes to call. Here’s the thing: your credit will recover in time from everything else you can do to it, but an eviction filing will follow you forever regardless of the verdict.

In all of this analysis, I’ve not really addressed one glaring issue: the fact that I could pull eviction statistics going back to 2004. In fact, if you visit the website of the Cook County Clerk of Court, you’ll find that you can search through online case records going back to at least 1991. In other words, some of those records are old enough to drink.

In order to find out about a low credit score, someone would need your permission and a lot of your personal data to pull your credit report. By contrast, if the state of public records access remains consistent, anyone and their brother can dig up that information without you knowing. That includes future potential roommates, landlords, business partners and employers. Yes, it’s possible for a researcher to see that your case was dismissed. But that’s because it’s possible for them to casually breeze through all of the details of your case.

Now, some of you will react to this with outrage at the courts for making the data public. However, the public records are available because the courts are paid for by the taxpayers, and we have a right to know how our money is being spent. If you want to avoid having the details of your eviction lawsuit made public, don’t get involved with one in the first place.

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  1. [1] US Census Bureau: Marital Events of Americans: 2009

Cook Eviction Stats Part 6: Forcible Entry vs Joint Action

There’s two different types of eviction cases that can be filed by a landlord in Cook County. One is called “Forcible Entry & Detainer,” and the other is called “Joint Action.” In order to explain the difference I’d like to take a moment to talk to you about Buffalo wings. This will make sense in a moment, I promise.

Chicken Evictions
just wings The Wings. The meat of the matter. What you’re really there for. Forcible Detainer & Entry. In other words, the landlord wants to get the tenant out of the apartment. This is the core purpose behind every eviction case.

(more…)

Cook Eviction Stats Part 5: Are eviction filings increasing?

The Chicago Landlord-Tenant ordinance has been amended many times since its creation in 1986. The most recent changes were in 2004, 2008 and 2010. By and large these changes have been in response to major trends in landlord-tenant behavior. For example, since 2010 landlords have had to tell their tenants the name and address of the bank where a security deposit is held. This was so that tenants could still track down their deposits if the bank foreclosed on their apartment building.

As is often the case with law changes, the general reaction to new CRLTO amendments has involved a lot of hand-wringing and fretting among landlords. Meanwhile, the economic troubles that have plagued our country in the past half a decade would theoretically cause more tenants to miss rent payments and get into situations that might prompt an eviction case. This nasty combination of tighter laws and a weaker economy made me wonder if the rate of eviction filings was getting higher or lower over time.

Evictions by Year: City and Suburbs (more…)

Cook Eviction Stats Part 4: Comparing Districts

How this article started

It is a peculiarity of American evictions that they are held at the county/parish level instead of at the city/municipal level as one might expect. This means that even though Chicago rentals are generally protected by Chicago-specific laws, evictions are handled by the Cook County District courts, of which there are six.

Cook County District Courts
District/Location Coverage
1st, Chicago City of Chicago
2nd, Skokie Northern Suburbs
3rd, Rolling Meadows Northwestern Suburbs
4th, Maywood Western Suburbs
5th, Bridgeview Southwestern Suburbs
6th, Markham Southern Suburbs

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Rent Bacon, January 2013 – New Format!

New. Improved. Actually Useful.

Rent Bacon, January 2013: 1 bed/1 bath rentals Chicago

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

Welcome to the new Rent Bacon. As I explained last month, I’ve redesigned the Rent Bacon concept to be more comprehensive and more recent. I’ve spent quite some time over the past month thinking about the goals for this monthly series and I’ve got some really exciting results for you.

First of all, we will be rotating monthly through 1 bed/1 bath apartments, 2 bed/2 bath apartments, and 3 bed/2 bath apartments so that we hit all three of the most popular apartment sizes at least once a quarter.

Secondly, we will be looking at 3 month averages instead of one month averages in order to get a decent sample size in each of our zones.

Thirdly, and this is most exciting, the index is actually useful. The new Rent Bacon Index is a rough estimate for how much more the same apartment is worth this year over last year. This means that if you’re a landlord, you can use it to figure out how much to increase rents this year. If you’re a tenant, you can figure out how much more or less you can expect to pay to move to the same size apartment in the same area.

About The Graphic (more…)

Cook County Eviction Stats Part 3: Are other trials also biased?

When I started this adventure I based my concept of “a fair court system” on an ideal of 50% of cases won by the plaintiff (the landlord) and 50% won by the defendant (the tenant). Even something between 48-52% would have been sufficient. The results I got from the Cook County Eviction stats over the past 8 years indicated that 62.8% of eviction cases were won by the landlord. If I compared this to my idea of a perfectly fair system it clearly indicated a bias, and not the “anti-landlord” bias purported to exist by many Chicago landlords.

The world is not perfect. Neither is the justice system. I started wondering if my ideal 50/50 split of verdicts was even attainable outside of a courthouse run by androids and angels. What if the court system is structured so that 62.8% is as close as you can get to a fair trial in the US? I started digging to find out the verdict balance in some other types of cases.

Is it possible that the Cook County Eviction court is the fairest one of all?

Could Cook County Eviction court be the fairest one of all?


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Cook County Evictions Part 2: Yes, Virginia, there is a bias.

OK that was mean of me. I gave you a teaser at the end of Monday’s article, indicating that there was definitely a bias in the Cook County courts when it came to evictions. I even gave you a pie chart with the numbers intact but the categories redacted.

When I did my small-scale analysis in May 2012, I came to the conclusion that the system was biased when it came to money judgments but basically fair when it came to getting possession of apartments back from deadbeat tenants. Landlords stood to win their cases about 50% of the time, which is exactly what you’d expect to see in an unbiased system. However, once I obtained the large-scale data from 8 years of eviction history and crunched the numbers, a different picture emerged. This picture will allow us to temporarily put to bed the pervasive urban legend that the courts are biased against landlords.

That’s right. 222,323 cases were found in favor of the landlord. 131,423 cases were found in favor of the tenant. The division is consistent across all six districts and consistent regardless of if you filed for possession only, or for possession and money. So if you’re a landlord, you’ve got just about a 2 out of 3 chance of winning your case. So there. Ha.

Maybe Not. (more…)

Cook County Evictions Revisit Part 1: Intro

Returning to the Scene of the Crime

In May of 2012 I did a three part series that tried to debunk the urban legend that Chicago’s government entities are biased against landlords. I investigated the CRLTO and found it to be weighted heavily in favor of the tenant. I also investigated eviction proceedings using the Cook County Clerk’s website. Based on the information I used, I came to the conclusion that the courts were also biased in favor of the tenant. However, I didn’t feel too confident with those results.

I'm not doing so well in disproving the rumor that I count beans as a hobby, am I?

I’m not doing so well in disproving the rumor that I count beans as a hobby, am I?

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