Tag Archives: apartments

Rent Bacon: March 2013

No Foolin’.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

New month, new Rent Bacon. Rent Bacon gauges the change in actual value of apartments in Chicago on a quarterly basis using rental data from the local MLS. The index takes into account the rent rates, market times, and ratio of rented units compared to listed units. This month we’re looking at 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments throughout the city. For more info on how the index is calculated, check out this explanatory post.

Observation #1: Better value

Now this is not something obvious from the chart above, but it is quite clear if you compare it against last month’s results for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments. The index value for 2 beds is considerably higher, peaking over 300 for the smaller units. Does this mean that they’re actually a better value? Yes, absolutely. (more…)

Field Guide to Chicago Apartments: Studios

fieldguideIt’s been a while since we pulled out the old Field Guide for a humorous look at some of the different types of Chicago apartments. Last summer I gave you an overview of garden apartments and coach houses. Today we’re going to look at another common species of apartment with many quirks: the studio. As the economy starts to recover, many renters who have paired up with roommates through the recession will be able to move out on their own again. Studios, designed for single occupants, will be their next logical stop.

Habitat: Restricted

Unlike the previous two species we studied in the Field Guide, the studio apartment (apartmentus minisculus ecubiculus) cannot be found throughout Chicago. In fact, their territory is quite constricted. Studios can only be spotted in areas that currently attract large numbers of single residents, or in areas that attracted them in the past. They tend to flock together in high rise buildings along the lakefront and close to major transit hubs. Their slow appreciation makes them of little interest to condo developers. The ones that exist inland are usually converted from former hotels or clustered around college campuses and hospitals. (more…)

Rent Bacon: February 2013

Let’s talk about 3 bedroom apartments.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

It’s March. That means it’s time to see how the Chicago rental market performed over the past three months in that fancy statistical analysis we like to call Rent Bacon. As a reminder, we changed formats last month to make this monthly feature more useful. In the process we created a rent index which can be used as a means of comparing value between neighborhoods and gauging how much rent could go up or down over the next year. If you want to read more about what the numbers mean, check this explanatory post about the new Rent Bacon.

This month we’re talking about 3 bedroom / 2 bathroom apartments, and investigating how they’ve performed over the past three months. This is the first time we’ve really looked at 3 beds, which are pretty much the top end in terms of size as Chicago apartments go. You might be able to find something larger in a single family home for rent, but they’re few and far between.

Observation #1: The Gap

In a previous installment of Rent Bacon, I remarked that I saw indicators of people flowing from very expensive Zone 1 to moderately priced Zone 2 when rents got really high downtown. However, that movement didn’t continue from Zone 2 to the even lower-priced Zone 3. My surmise was that the folks who live in Zone 3 – the outskirts of the city – are more likely to move up in size in their same area instead of moving further inwards when their situations changed.

Today in reviewing the index prices we see another potential reason – the gap between Zone 3 housing costs and the inner districts is massive, especially when it comes to apartments large enough to house a big family. Look at the chart above. Look at the gap between the bottom two lines. The average 3 bedroom apartment in Zone 3 is fully 33% cheaper than anywhere else in the city. This is not just a matter of people on the city outskirts loving their neighborhoods. The price gap may be completely insurmountable. A family would have to be earning $84k per year to meet the “affordable housing” limits in Zone 1 or 2. Unless you’ve got a white collar breadwinner or two blue collar/no collar working adults in the family, that just isn’t going to happen.

Observation #2: The winter really blows for 3 beds.

Winter is a tough time to move for the families that tend to occupy 3 beds. It means uprooting the kids from school and packing up a massive amount of stuff during the worst possible weather of the year. The rental market in Chicago generally slows way down in the winter, but for 3 beds it’s a bit more extreme than we see with smaller apartments. All three of the zones saw major drops in the 4th quarter every year going back to 2010. This year has been particularly nasty.

Zone 3’s values took a major hit, falling 11 points since the same time last year and 78 points since the 3rd quarter of 2012. Rent rates actually improved, so the change in value is largely attributable to a glut of extra units coming on the market. As I discussed in an earlier article, January is always a big month for relationships to fall apart and one bedroom rentals spike upwards accordingly. The improving economy has allowed large groups of roommates to split up, which may be resulting in more large units on the market.

Zones 1 and 2 are sitting pretty and showing growth compared to last year. However, the growth is drastically slowed. Last summer the downtown index peaked at 295.65 and the Zone 2 index at 292.99, so we’ve fallen off a bit from those lofty heights. However, when compared with last winter, an equally slow season, the inner districts actually gained 10-14 points.

Zone 1 is seeing static rents and steadily increasing market times. However, this trend should reverse itself once the spring market hits, so don’t count on it being a trend that we’ll see through the year. Meanwhile, Zone 2’s market times are stable, but the rent rates have relaxed a bit and is suffering from a slight inventory glut that’s hurting it’s rent-to-list ratios. Again, this should be remedied by the spring market when a large number of renters suddenly hit the scene all at once to snap up the leftovers from a slow winter season.

Observation #3: That Chart is Too Steep to Sustain

That’s a pretty nasty slope on that chart. Zone 3’s values at their peak last year had inflated to reach downtown’s 2010 values. That kind of growth is far too rapid for renters – traditionally the poorer members of society – to sustain on an ongoing basis. While the rents in Zone 3 have remained largely stable, the rental pace and market demand out there have made it very difficult for someone working 50+ hours a week to find anything good. Meanwhile, in Zones 1 and 2 average rents have increased by between $400-500 for a 3 bed in just 3 years. This means that the average 3 bedroom renter has to be earning between $14k and $18k more in 2013 than they were in 2010. I somehow don’t think that’s realistic.

Chicago has earned the envy of other northern US cities for a long time when it comes to our roomy apartments and comparatively low rents. When you stack downtown Chicago rents against New York ($6000 for a 3 bed) or San Francisco ($4500) prices we’re still pretty cheap. Even so, 18% growth in rents over 3 years is about twice the pace that an average renter can handle. There must be a slowdown. I see it happening within the next 2 years.

everything is going to be alright

The Numbers

Table indicates values for 1 bedroom/1 bathroom rentals based on MLS data.

Average RentAverage Market TimeUnits Rented | ListedIndex
Zone 1
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$252359 days60 | 107261.19
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$254748 days64 | 98271.08
Zone 2
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$218843 days95 | 123226.78
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$233742 days75 | 102241.59
Zone 3
Dec 2011-Feb 2012$149553 days38 | 6760.52
Dec 2012-Feb 2013$157460 days22 | 4749.41

The Zones

The Chicago neighborhood zones remain consistent between this version and the last.

Zone 1 covers central Chicago from South Loop through Lincoln Park. (Actual coordinates: 2000 South to 2000 North, from Western Ave to the Lake).

Zone 2 covers the near North side of Chicago, including Lakeview, Bucktown, Uptown, Lincoln Square, Roscoe Village and NorthCenter. (Actual coordinates: 2000 North to 5200 North, from Western Ave to the Lake.)

Zone 3 covers the Far North and Near South side of Chicago, including Edgewater, Andersonville, Rogers Park, West Ridge, Chinatown, Bridgeport and Douglas. (Actual coordinates: 5200-7600 North plus 2000-4500 South, from Western Ave to the Lake.)


 

I’ll be back on Wednesday with some advice for a renter who got a nasty surprise this month. See you then!

Cook Eviction Stats Part 7: What does this mean for tenants?

I’ve spent the past 6 sections of this study focusing mostly on what the Cook County/Chicago eviction statistics mean for landlords. It’s time to focus a little on what they mean for renters. I’m not a lawyer, and I’m not going to tell you how to win your eviction case. There are far better resources than me out there for saving your bacon. This article is focusing on the numbers.

A lot of you have been involved in eviction cases.

7 out of every 100 apartments in Chicago will be the subjects of eviction cases each year. Given that apartments often house more than one person, this means if you’re a renter in Chicago, you’ve got quite a bit more than a 7% chance of winding up involved in an eviction suit.

This is what we're talking about here. It's undignified, it's obvious, and it's humiliating. And a lot of you have been through it before.

This is what we’re talking about here. It’s undignified, it’s obvious, and it’s humiliating. And a lot of you have been through it before.

By comparison, 8% of married Illinois residents wind up in divorce each year, according to the census bureau.[1] You probably know several people who have gotten divorced last year. This means that you may well know even more people who’ve been involved in an eviction case, although they’re probably not going to admit it to your face.

It costs a landlord quite a bit of time and money to file an eviction case. They’re not usually going to do it if a tenant hasn’t given them good reason to do so, and they’ve exhausted every other possible means of solving the problem. Eviction means they wind up with a vacancy on their hands, and usually one in worse condition than one where a tenant moves out of their own free will. However, if they’re gaining no income from a deadbeat tenant, it eventually becomes more cost effective for them to incur a short term vacancy.

There are a few basic things that a human being needs to survive. Food, water, air and shelter are the big ones. If you’re not earning enough money to remain in your apartment, there are plenty of steps you can take to get out of your lease before the court has to mandate that you do so. If a renter has allowed their shelter-related problems to spiral downward to the point of eviction, what does that say about their ability to prioritize?

This exists. It was mentioned in the New York Times. I don't even.

This exists. It was mentioned in the New York Times. What is this I don’t even….

Chances are good that you will get involved in partnerships with strangers at some point in the near future. It may be a business relationship, a roommate situation, or a dating scenario. Cook County makes it relatively easy for you to check if a person has been evicted before. Perhaps you should take a few minutes to for fact checking before you saddle yourself with a scrub.

You have slightly less than 40% chance of not getting evicted.

62.7% of filed eviction cases in Cook County wind up with the landlord getting the tenant thrown out of the apartment, with many of those cases tacking on an order to pay the back rent. It’s easy when looking at that percentage to envision the other 37.3% of cases involving renters proudly facing their landlords in court, delivering the smackdown of righteousness, and maybe getting their landlords slapped with fines for daring to drag everybody down to the 1st District courthouse.

This is not a picture of you in eviction court. Sorry.

This is not a picture of you in eviction court. Sorry.

I’m not saying that doesn’t happen sometimes.

However, those other cases could have had any of the following, less exciting conclusions:

  • The landlord and tenant settled out of court.
  • The tenant’s lease expired and/or they moved out before the court date.
  • The landlord accepted a partial payment of the balance due, and had their case thrown out.
  • The landlord forgot to show up for court.

Half of those causes are clerical errors, and will probably wind up in a re-filing of the same case at a later date. As for the other half? Well, the point of filing an eviction case is to get a tenant out of an apartment before the lease ends, and sometimes to force them to pay back rent. If those goals are accomplished in any other way, then the case doesn’t need to go all the way to its conclusion. I’d say less than 10% of the tenants who are taken to eviction court wind up “winning” their case at the point that they’re standing in front of the judge.

Even if you win your case, there are repercussions.

There’s been a recent trend with the weak economy where people just stop paying their rent or mortgage and wait for the axe to fall. Renters who are reading this series may be doing so with an eye towards this kind of strategic delinquency, hoping that the eviction proceedings will take long enough that things will turn around for them before the sheriff comes to call. Here’s the thing: your credit will recover in time from everything else you can do to it, but an eviction filing will follow you forever regardless of the verdict.

In all of this analysis, I’ve not really addressed one glaring issue: the fact that I could pull eviction statistics going back to 2004. In fact, if you visit the website of the Cook County Clerk of Court, you’ll find that you can search through online case records going back to at least 1991. In other words, some of those records are old enough to drink.

In order to find out about a low credit score, someone would need your permission and a lot of your personal data to pull your credit report. By contrast, if the state of public records access remains consistent, anyone and their brother can dig up that information without you knowing. That includes future potential roommates, landlords, business partners and employers. Yes, it’s possible for a researcher to see that your case was dismissed. But that’s because it’s possible for them to casually breeze through all of the details of your case.

Now, some of you will react to this with outrage at the courts for making the data public. However, the public records are available because the courts are paid for by the taxpayers, and we have a right to know how our money is being spent. If you want to avoid having the details of your eviction lawsuit made public, don’t get involved with one in the first place.

(more…)

  1. [1]US Census Bureau: Marital Events of Americans: 2009

Rent Bacon, January 2013 – New Format!

New. Improved. Actually Useful.

Rent Bacon, January 2013: 1 bed/1 bath rentals Chicago

The Rent Bacon index number is an indicator of how a district is performing compared to the HUD Fair Market Rents. Landlords can use it to figure out how much more to charge this year. Tenants can figure out how much more it will cost to move.

Welcome to the new Rent Bacon. As I explained last month, I’ve redesigned the Rent Bacon concept to be more comprehensive and more recent. I’ve spent quite some time over the past month thinking about the goals for this monthly series and I’ve got some really exciting results for you.

First of all, we will be rotating monthly through 1 bed/1 bath apartments, 2 bed/2 bath apartments, and 3 bed/2 bath apartments so that we hit all three of the most popular apartment sizes at least once a quarter.

Secondly, we will be looking at 3 month averages instead of one month averages in order to get a decent sample size in each of our zones.

Thirdly, and this is most exciting, the index is actually useful. The new Rent Bacon Index is a rough estimate for how much more the same apartment is worth this year over last year. This means that if you’re a landlord, you can use it to figure out how much to increase rents this year. If you’re a tenant, you can figure out how much more or less you can expect to pay to move to the same size apartment in the same area.

About The Graphic (more…)

Rent Bacon: November AND December 2012

This is the end of Rent Bacon as we know it.

Today I’m posting the Rent Bacon data for two months: November and December 2012. It is the last time you’ll see it in this format. Next month we’re going to repurpose Rent Bacon in three ways.

More timely.

One of my pet peeves with the Chicago rental industry is the tendency of Realtors to leave their listings active for just a little too long. I’ve discussed this concern over leaving listings active for too long at length before. However, I took this matter into consideration when I started doing Rent Bacon last year. In order to make sure all of the leases for a given month are included in the stats, I’ve been waiting an entire extra month and therefore running 2 months behind with the data by the time it’s printed here.

November Rent Bacon.

November Rent Bacon.

We aren’t going to do that anymore. (more…)

Rent Bacon: October 2012

The Offseason is Upon Us!

As I’ve discussed before, the rental market slows down in Chicago once October 1 passes. Rent Bacon is a year-over-year analysis, and as the quickie image shows, the market is still up as compared to where it was this time last year, but compared with the activity and prices of two months ago we’ve slowed down considerably. This is to be expected. However, the average rent for a 2 bed/2 bath rental downtown remains firmly stationed above $2500 per month and for the near north area it’s sitting pretty over $2000.

Detailed Analysis

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A Way to Remember the Essential Services

If you’re a Chicago landlord or tenant in an apartment covered by the CRLTO, you’ve got two levels of problems that can possibly arise. One type is your standard, run of the mill maintenance issue. For most of these, the landlord has 14 days from the time they are notified in writing of the problem to fix the issue before the tenant can invoke the law. Other problems are considered “essential services” and must be repaired within a much tighter timeframe: 72 hours.

True facts: “Aardvark” is the Afrikaans word for “Earth Pig.” This here is a baby aardvark. This will make sense momentarily.

(more…)

The Online Rental Scams and How to Avoid Them

Would you marry this person? No? Then why would you rent from a landlord if you couldn’t meet him nor see the apartment first?

Here’s a fable for you. You’re hunting for an apartment online. You have a budget that’s towards the lower end and are tired of looking in the bad neighborhoods, so you take a quick look over into a trendy, name brand area. Suddenly you spot it! A three bedroom house for rent for just $800, when all of the other listings are $2000! And it’s empty and move-in ready. The address is even in the listing so you’re pretty sure it’s legit.

You contact the landlord. They say they’re out of the country working with the Peace Corps in Africa, so they can’t meet you in person. However, they suggest that you go drive past and take a peek in the windows if you like. You might do so. Or maybe you think, “gosh, this landlord is so clueless keeping the rent so low! I should jump on this before he figures out what the real value of his listing is.” (more…)

Rent Bacon: September 2012

Zone 3? What are you doing?! Zone 3! Stop!

Ladies and Gentlemen, It’s the Offseason!

Remember last month when I said that the August rental stats would probably be the last reliable analysis we get on the Chicago market until spring? Well, the September stats are here, and I was correct to a certain extent. They are definitely all higgledy-piggledy. However, there is some amount of information we can wring out of the numbers if we look closely.

Zone 1 – big slowdown

The rents in the downtown area (Zone 1) once again showed improvement, both over where we were 12 months ago and where we were one month ago. However, the market times, while better than they were last year, are a little longer than we saw in August. After all of my talk about how the market slows down in the late summer you’d think we’d see those rent rates drop, but instead we see the change in the number of units rented. Yes, the rents went up, but fewer of them filled, leaving more to coast into October. In August we saw 215 units rent, and in September of 2011 it was pretty close to that same number at 212.

So for Zone 1, this means the agents probably were hoping that the standard seasonal downturn would be offset by the extremely hot rental market that we’ve seen over the pat 12 months and did not lower their prices in anticipation of the annual 50% drop in demand that occurs as September ends. I’m thinking based on these numbers that the average Zone 1 asking rent on a two bedroom apartment needs to come down by about 10-15%. My bet is that next month we see a much higher market time as many of the units will have remained on the market into October.

Zone 2 – Slight slowdown

Moving out of the luxury market into neighborhoods with trendy names and smaller architecture, the Zone 2 results show a more gradual relaxation but there is no doubt even here that the end of season had an effect on the September numbers. While rents were higher than they were in 2011 by about 3.5% and market times were two days shorter, they actually fell 2.8% from where they were just a month ago in August of 2012.

Market times were consistent, so it looks like the Zone 2 agents have a better ability to anticipate the end of the rental season. I think that downtown/Zone 1 is seeing some Realtors dabbling in rentals when they normally handle sales only. The Zone 1 market has for years been the near-exclusive province of the property management companies with in-house leasing staff. It’s only in the past two years that the condo-to-rental market has necessitated that downtown Realtors sidestep into leasing. Many of them probably started doing rentals sometime this year and couldn’t predict what was coming as the weather turned colder. By contrast Zone 2 agents (and Zone 3 agents as we’ll see) are more practiced in the apartment market and were able to warn their clients. As a result, while the total number of units rented was still a 23% drop over last month, it was pretty consistent with the 2011 performance. Well done, Zone 2!

Zone 3 – Ouch.

Oh my goodness what the heck happened in Zone 3? 5.6% lower rents and almost 50% longer market times compared with 2011. A 10% drop in rents since August. The lowest attained rents since January. What happened? The answer lies in what happened at other sizes. Remember, Rent Bacon is a snapshot of 2 bedroom, 2 bath apartments only. Our drop in Zone 3 was absorbed by the larger 3 bedroom, 2 bath apartments.

Renting at an average price of $1615 this year, 3 bedroom apartments in Zone 3 are far more affordable than a 2 bed in any other zone, and not terribly much more expensive than a two bedroom. Renters have noticed this. They only rented eight 3 beds in September of 2011, but this year they rented 21 of them. Almost 300% growth in demand. Coupled with the standard price drops and increased market times of the off-season, this shift in popularity is what caused such disastrous numbers for Zone 3 two bedroom apartments.

The Numbers

Average RentAverage Market TimeTotal Rented
Zone 1
September 2011$245233 days212
September 2012$255826 days163
Zone 2
September 2011$196323 days87
September 2012$203121 days80
Zone 3
September 2011$140529 days26
September 2012$132746 days24

Stats reflect pricing and activity for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments listed in ConnectMLS as with rented dates during the month of April. Analysis of specific areas is available upon request.

What is Rent Bacon?

Rent Bacon is a quick visual summary of what’s happening in the rental market this month compared with this time last year. It breaks the city down into three zones. For each zone, it takes the change in average rent rates and the change in average market times as percentages, and then averages the two percentages together.

Zone 1 covers central Chicago from South Loop through Lincoln Park. (Actual coordinates: 2000 South to 2000 North, from Western Ave to the Lake).

Zone 2 covers the near North side of Chicago, including Lakeview, Bucktown, Uptown, Lincoln Square, Roscoe Village and NorthCenter. (Actual coordinates: 2000 North to 5200 North, from Western Ave to the Lake.)

Zone 3 covers the Far North and Near South side of Chicago, including Edgewater, Andersonville, Rogers Park, West Ridge, Chinatown, Bridgeport and Douglas. (Actual coordinates: 5200-7600 North plus 2000-4500 South, from Western Ave to the Lake.)

Want more Rent Bacon? Here’s all of them on one page!

 

 

10 Steps to Secure Your Home or Apartment for Showings

So your landlord or an agent has called to say that she needs to show your home.

For owners this should come as no surprise. If your house is on the market, showings will happen and your agent will probably request that you absent yourself while they occur.

For renters, showings may be a surprise as they can happen at any time of year. You don’t have to be moving out. A showing in the middle of your lease does not necessarily mean that your apartment building is for sale! Your landlord may be trying to get a better insurance rate or refinance the property. Both of these tasks could require access to your apartment. You should grant it provided that your landlord gives you proper advance notice.

Regardless of who is coming to view your apartment, though, you can be certain of one thing – strangers will be entering your living quarters and you may not be able to be home when it happens. Whether it’s a new prospective renter, an appraiser or a Realtor, you’ll want to take precautions to make sure that you’ve safeguarded your belongings. After all, your landlord’s insurance won’t cover the items if they go missing or get damaged.

Google currently shows over 36 million results for the phrase “robbed during an open house.”

Here are ten things you can do to make sure your stuff stays safe when your home has an encounter with stranger danger.

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